The lazy reading of Tuesday’s bank tape is that the prints beat and the Dow opened about 0.7 percent higher. JPMorgan missed, and as of 8:14 a.m. Eastern the cash session had not opened. The firm reported third-quarter 2026 earnings of $5.57 a share, against the $5.90 LSEG estimate on CNBC, and managed revenue of $50.9 billion against $51.22 billion. The $5.75 figure that excludes a securities loss is still short of $5.90. Wells Fargo’s $1.87 beat a $1.85 estimate and missed revenue. Goldman Sachs reported $18.68 billion of net revenue against $16.71 billion. Dow futures, not the Dow, were up 0.68 percent at 8:04 a.m. Eastern, versus their own prior price. The gap in the coverage is that split, plus a JPMorgan premarket last of $335.00 at 8:14 a.m., only 0.21 percent above Monday’s $334.30 close, after an earlier bounce that did not hold. CNBC’s open put the Dow at 52,092.99, up 0.47 percent from 51,850.55, not 0.7 percent. Citigroup later reported $2.85 a share.
Key facts
- JPMorgan reported third-quarter 2026 net income of $15.3 billion, or $5.57 a share, and managed revenue of $50.9 billion. Excluding $658 million of securities losses, EPS was $5.75. Source: Exhibit 99.1, filed 13 October 2026.
- LSEG via Sara Salinas, CNBC live blog, 13 October 2026: $5.57 versus $5.90 and $50.91 billion versus $51.22 billion. Hugh Son at 6:51 a.m. had shares off about 3.5 percent. Salinas at 7:19 a.m. had them up about 1 percent as of about 7:20 a.m.
- Wells Fargo reported diluted EPS of $1.87, revenue of $21.870 billion, and net interest income of $12.517 billion. Source: Exhibit 99.1, 13 October 2026. CNBC: LSEG $1.85 and $22.3 billion, StreetAccount net interest income $12.66 billion.
- Goldman Sachs reported net revenues of $18,679 million and diluted EPS of $17.01, after about $1.00 from charity. Source: Exhibit 99.2, 13 October 2026. CNBC: $18.68 billion versus $16.71 billion, and $17.01 may not compare with $13.02.
- Monday 12 October 2026 Nasdaq closes: JPMorgan $334.30, Wells Fargo $83.32, Goldman Sachs $893.95. Source: Nasdaq historical prices, downloaded 13 October 2026.
- CNBC premarket, 8:14 a.m. Eastern, 13 October 2026: JPMorgan $335.00, up 0.21 percent, Wells Fargo $82.01, down 1.57 percent, Goldman Sachs $935.00, up 4.59 percent, Citigroup $130.50, down 1.08 percent. Not an open. At 7:53 a.m. JPMorgan was $336.20.
- Dow futures 52,462, up 0.68 percent at 8:04 a.m. Eastern versus a prior futures price of 52,110. S&P 500 futures 7,849.25, down 0.11 percent. Monday cash closes: Dow 51,850.55, S&P 500 7,807.24. Source: CNBC quotes, 13 October 2026.
- The Treasury 10-year closed Friday 9 October 2026 at 5.24 percent. Source: the Treasury daily yield curve. Tradeweb’s US10Y print at 8:14 a.m. Tuesday was 5.185 percent, previous 5.244 percent.
What just happened, and why the obvious reading is wrong
A beat is a result against a named consensus. JPMorgan missed both LSEG lines. The gap is $0.33 a share, 5.6 percent of the $5.90 estimate. CNBC’s $50.91 billion revenue line is $0.31 billion, or 0.6 percent, under $51.22 billion. Reported revenue of $50.2 billion is a different line, $1.02 billion under that estimate. The $658 million pretax securities loss, $498 million after tax, adds only $0.18, so $5.75 is still $0.15, or 2.5 percent, short. Hugh Son noted JPMorgan had topped EPS estimates in 16 of the prior 20 quarters, per StreetAccount.
The path inside the morning is what a single headline drops. Hugh Son wrote at 6:51 a.m. Eastern that the shares were off about 3.5 percent. Sara Salinas wrote at 7:19 a.m. that they were up about 1 percent as of about 7:20 a.m. The 7:53 a.m. CNBC last was $336.20, up 0.57 percent, and Nasdaq’s was $336.05, up 0.52 percent. The 8:14 a.m. CNBC last was $335.00, up $0.70, or 0.21 percent. A 3.5 percent dip from $334.30 is about $322.60. Neither saved last is that price, and the bounce had already faded.
Wells Fargo cleared EPS by $0.02 and missed revenue by $0.43 billion. Net interest income of $12.517 billion is $0.143 billion under the $12.66 billion StreetAccount figure Laya Neelakandan cited. The 8:14 a.m. last was $82.01, down 1.57 percent. FinanceFeeds’ Monday note carried the $1.85 expectation. The print cleared it and missed the top line.
Goldman beat revenue by $1.97 billion, or 11.8 percent. Salinas wrote that $17.01 “may not compare” with $13.02, and charity cut EPS by about $1.00. Forcing a 30.6 percent earnings gap ignores that caveat. The 8:14 a.m. last was $935.00, up 4.59 percent.
Citigroup had no 8-K at about 8:14 a.m., and the premarket last was $130.50, down 1.08 percent. Citigroup’s 13 October release later reported net income of $5.2 billion, or $2.85 a share, on revenue of $23.8 billion. The table lines are $5,245 million and $23,845 million, against $3.8 billion, $1.86, and $22.1 billion a year earlier. CNBC at 7:53 a.m. had LSEG at $2.66 and $23.72 billion. The $2.85 print is a beat of that earnings line. The 11 a.m. Eastern call was still ahead of this check.
Who is exposed
Holders of JPMorgan are marked to Monday’s $334.30, and the 8:14 a.m. last was only $0.70 above it. The high close in the Nasdaq file is $365.18 on 12 August 2026, so Monday is $30.88, or 8.5 percent, below it. The low close is $282.84 on 27 March 2026. Book value was $132.30 at 30 September, and Monday is 2.53 times that book. The bear case stays above book.
The other names are not one factor. At 8:14 a.m. Wells Fargo was down 1.57 percent, Goldman was up 4.59 percent, and Citigroup was down 1.08 percent before the release. Bank of America was $54.35, down 0.42 percent, and Morgan Stanley was $194.05, up 2.12 percent, both ahead of Wednesday. Monday closes were $83.32, $893.95, $131.92, $54.58, and $190.02.
Dow futures at 52,462 were up 0.68 percent from their own prior price of 52,110, and $611.45, or 1.18 percent, above Monday’s cash close of 51,850.55. The 0.68 percent is not the distance from the cash Dow. S&P futures at 7,849.25 were down 0.11 percent from 7,858 and $42.01, or 0.54 percent, above Monday’s cash close of 7,807.24, which itself was down 0.06 percent. A flat S&P near 7,800 is that Monday close, not a Tuesday open.
JPMorgan’s card net charge-off rate was 2.91 percent, and investment banking fees rose 14 percent from a year earlier and fell 8 percent from the prior quarter. CNBC, citing Dealogic, said global investment banking revenue fell 6.6 percent to $27.2 billion. As reported by CNBC, Brian Moynihan warned in September that Bank of America’s third-quarter fees were headed for a drop of more than 10 percent.
What the tape and the primary documents show
Results below are from the releases. Estimates are CNBC’s LSEG or StreetAccount lines. The last column is the CNBC extended quote at 8:14 a.m. Eastern on 13 October 2026, not a close.
| Name | Result on 13 Oct 2026 | Named estimate | Premarket, 8:14 a.m. |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan | EPS $5.57, managed revenue $50.9 billion. Ex-item EPS $5.75 | LSEG $5.90 and $51.22 billion | $335.00, up 0.21 percent, from $334.30 |
| Wells Fargo | EPS $1.87, revenue $21.870 billion, net interest income $12.517 billion | LSEG $1.85 and $22.3 billion. StreetAccount NII $12.66 billion | $82.01, down 1.57 percent, from $83.32 |
| Goldman Sachs | Net revenue $18.68 billion, EPS $17.01 after about $1.00 of charity | LSEG $16.71 billion. EPS $13.02 may not compare | $935.00, up 4.59 percent, from $893.95 |
| Citigroup | $2.85, net income $5.2 billion, revenue $23.8 billion | LSEG $2.66 and $23.72 billion at 7:53 a.m. | $130.50, down 1.08 percent, from $131.92 |
Markets revenue rose 15 percent from a year earlier, fixed income markets fell 4 percent, and equity markets rose 49 percent. Expense was $27.3 billion. Hugh Son put fixed income trading at $5.4 billion, about $550 million under StreetAccount, with costs up 12 percent and revenue up 8 percent. Average loans were $1.6 trillion and average deposits $2.7 trillion. CET1 was 13.9 percent standardized.
Monday’s bar opened and closed at $334.30, up $1.31 from Friday’s $332.99.
Wells Fargo’s taxable-equivalent net interest margin was 2.43 percent, down from 2.61 percent a year earlier, while net interest income was still up 5 percent from a year earlier. CET1 was 10.0 percent. ROTCE was 16.3 percent.
What Dimon, Scharf and Solomon said
Jamie Dimon, chairman and chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, did not call it a miss. In Exhibit 99.1 he said: “The Firm reported another quarter of strong results, generating net income of $15.8 billion and an ROTCE of 21%, excluding discretionary investment securities losses totaling $498 million after tax.” Markets revenue and investment banking fees each rose at a mid-teens rate, “although activity did moderate somewhat during the quarter,” and “In line with our hierarchy, we reduced share repurchases this quarter.” He also said “large fiscal deficits, sticky inflation, elevated asset prices, rising interest rates and geopolitical conditions continue to shift under the surface.”
Charlie Scharf, chairman and chief executive of Wells Fargo, tied $1.87 to growth rather than to the estimate. In Exhibit 99.1 he said: “Our third quarter results reflect broad-based growth, higher earnings, and stronger returns. Diluted earnings per share increased to $1.87 in the third quarter, up 13% from a year ago.” He also said: “While higher interest rates, higher oil prices and persistent inflation create risks to the economy, strong positive forces such as the investment in AI infrastructure, high employment levels and consistent wage growth continue to outweigh the risks.” Laya Neelakandan wrote that full-year net interest income and expense guidance were maintained.
David Solomon, chairman and chief executive of Goldman Sachs, said on the earnings presentation: “Against the backdrop of a complicated operating environment, our clients continued to turn to Goldman Sachs for our world-class advice, execution and financing capabilities, resulting in our second highest quarterly net revenues and record year-to-date net revenues.” Hugh Son, on CNBC, put equities revenue at $6.44 billion, about $1.42 billion above estimates, and fixed income at $3.47 billion, $239 million short. The slides put ROTCE at 20.5 percent.
At 7:56 a.m. Eastern, @4damsENS posted the $5.57 miss and then wrote that shares were lower premarket. That price line does not match $335.00 at 8:14 a.m. At 7:58 a.m., @traphabits101 posted that Wells Fargo beat on profit and was light on revenue, that $17.01 was a massive beat, and that Citigroup was due. “Massive beat” is that account’s label. “Due” matched the missing 8-K at that hour.
The rate tension is a level, not a morning jump
An 8 October Reuters preview returned a 401 here, so those sentences are not used. The Treasury 10-year was 5.24 percent on Friday 9 October, 5.22 percent on 8 October, 5.28 percent on 7 October, and 5.31 percent on 5 October. The level is high. Friday was not the week’s high. Tuesday’s 8:14 a.m. Tradeweb print of 5.185 percent was about 6 basis points under 5.244 percent and about 5.5 basis points under Friday’s close. That is a dip, not a jump into the prints.
Dimon lists rising rates as a risk. Scharf lists them as a risk that AI investment and wages still outweigh. The outlook slide then supports a 2027 case of about $107 billion of net interest income excluding markets, “driven by the impact of balance sheet growth and higher rates.”
Leslie Picker and Ritika Shah said the firm raised 2026 net interest income to about $106.2 billion, from a prior $105.5 billion, and expense to about $108.6 billion, from $107.5 billion. Card net charge-offs are guided near 3.2 percent, against 2.91 percent this quarter. FinanceFeeds’ 6 October yield note is a different tape.
Bull, base and bear
The spot is Monday’s official close, $334.30. Volatility is the last 90 daily log-returns in the Nasdaq file, after the 3 June 2026 close through 12 October 2026. The mean is 0.00117141 a day. The sample standard deviation is 0.01255585, about 19.9 percent if scaled by the square root of 252. The horizon is 56 New York sessions from Tuesday 13 October through Thursday 31 December 2026, dropping Thanksgiving on 26 November and Christmas on 25 December. Bull is 1.5 standard deviations up, with no drift. Bear is 1.0 standard deviation down, with no drift. Base is the drift alone. This is not financial advice.
The square root of 56 is 7.48331. Then 1.5 times 0.01255585 times 7.48331 is 0.140939, and $334.30 times the exponential of that is $384.90, up $50.60, or 15.1 percent. The bear exponent is 0.093959, and $334.30 times the exponential of the negative is $304.32, down $29.98, or 9.0 percent. Drift over 56 sessions is 0.065599, and $334.30 times that exponential is $356.97, up $22.67, or 6.8 percent. The base is above the spot because those 90 sessions averaged about 0.117 percent a day. The bull does not add that drift on top.
| Case | Price | Versus Monday’s $334.30 | What has to be true by 31 December 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $384.90 | Up $50.60, or 15.1 percent | 1.5 standard deviations, no drift, across 56 sessions. The $106.2 billion 2026 net interest income path holds. The level is $19.72 above the 12 August close of $365.18. |
| Base | $356.97 | Up $22.67, or 6.8 percent | Drift only, from the 0.117 percent average daily log-return over 56 sessions. Still $8.21 under the August high. |
| Bear | $304.32 | Down $29.98, or 9.0 percent | 1.0 standard deviation down, no drift. Still above the 27 March close of $282.84 and 2.30 times book value of $132.30. |
These are not Street targets. A separate FinanceFeeds note on this week’s bitcoin tape uses its own bull and bear. Those levels are not JPMorgan’s. The August high of $365.18 sits between the base and the bull.
What happens next
The cash open is in. CNBC’s open, checked at 9:43 a.m. Eastern, had JPMorgan at $339.97, up 1.70 percent from Monday’s $334.30, above the $335.00 last at 8:14 a.m. Goldman was $923.00, up 3.25 percent from $893.95 and under the $935.00 premarket last. Wells Fargo was $80.57, down 3.30 percent from $83.32, through the $82.01 premarket last. Citigroup was $131.35, down 0.43 percent from $131.92, so the $2.85 beat did not flip the open positive. The 0.68 percent futures change was not this open.
On Wednesday 14 October, before the open, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report. The chain is the 8:14 a.m. scatter: Goldman up 4.59 percent, Wells Fargo down 1.57 percent, JPMorgan up 0.21 percent. Clean beats on both earnings and revenue would be new. Citigroup’s release is out at $2.85. The 11 a.m. call is the next test.
By the 31 December 2026 close the levels are $384.90, $356.97, and $304.32. The bull needs implied 2026 net interest income of about $106.2 billion to hold, with the $0.18 securities item staying a one-quarter item. The bear is one standard deviation of the last 90 sessions and does not require the March low. The base is that positive drift continuing, which is why $356.97 sits above $334.30 without a new beat.
Frequently asked questions
Did the Tuesday prints beat, and do Dow futures up 0.68 percent justify the tape?
No. JPMorgan’s $5.57 missed the $5.90 LSEG estimate, and $5.75 excluding the securities loss missed it too. Wells Fargo beat by two cents and missed revenue. Goldman beat on revenue, with $17.01 flagged as not comparable to $13.02. Dow futures up 0.68 percent at 8:04 a.m. were not the cash open. Citigroup later reported $2.85 against the $2.66 LSEG line.
What did JPMorgan report, and what did the premarket actually do?
Net income was $15.3 billion, or $5.57 a share, on managed revenue of $50.9 billion. Excluding the securities loss, EPS was $5.75, still under the $5.90 LSEG line. Shares were about 3.5 percent lower at 6:51 a.m. on CNBC and about 1 percent higher by 7:20 a.m. The 8:14 a.m. last was $335.00, up 0.21 percent from $334.30.
Did Wells Fargo beat on profit?
On earnings per share, yes, by two cents: $1.87 against an LSEG estimate of $1.85. Revenue was $21.870 billion against $22.3 billion, and net interest income was $12.517 billion against StreetAccount’s $12.66 billion. At 8:14 a.m. the premarket last was $82.01, down 1.57 percent. The profit beat did not carry the top line.
Why is Goldman’s $17.01 not a clean beat of $13.02?
Sara Salinas wrote on CNBC that $17.01 may not compare with the $13.02 LSEG estimate. Revenue is the clean line: $18.68 billion against $16.71 billion, a gap of $1.97 billion. The slides say charitable contributions reduced diluted EPS by about $1.00. Forcing the earnings division is a 30.6 percent gap. The 8:14 a.m. premarket move was 4.59 percent, to $935.00, which is not that gap.
Did the Dow open about 0.7 percent higher?
No. CNBC’s open was 52,092.99, up 0.47 percent from Monday’s 51,850.55. The S&P 500 open was 7,795.27, down 0.15 percent from 7,807.24. By 9:43 a.m. Eastern the S&P last was 7,812.46, so the open and the later print are different numbers. The 8:04 a.m. futures print of 0.68 percent was a futures change.
Where do the bull, base and bear come from?
From Monday’s $334.30 close, 90 daily log-returns, and 56 sessions to 31 December 2026. Bull $384.90 is 1.5 standard deviations up with no drift. Base $356.97 is that window’s positive drift alone. Bear $304.32 is one standard deviation down with no drift. They are not analyst targets, and the bear stays above the March low.